Expected value (EV) is a concept that is well-understood by poker players and casino experts. It helps determine the odds of winning a hand. The EV can also be used in betting on sports games. Expert gamblers understand the EV concept and apply it to their own betting strategy.
Expected value
When you’re playing blackjack, the expected value of your hand can determine whether you should bet or stand. The expected value of a hand is the mathematical probability that a particular outcome will occur. For example, the probability of getting a blackjack is 4.83% in a game with 52 cards. It’s only a little higher in a game with six cards.
Variance
Variance in blackjack is the difference between the expected payout and the actual payout in blackjack. This difference is expressed as a percentage. Usually, players with an advantage in the game will vary their strategy and bet more when the shoe is favorable and less when it is unfavorable. Knowing the variance of each round of the game will help players evaluate their betting strategies. Software updates are also available to help players compute their variance and probability distribution.
A good card-counting strategy can increase the player’s chances of hitting a natural Blackjack, which pays out 3 to 2. A high concentration of 10s in a deck also increases the player’s chances of doubling up on a blackjack, as the dealer must hit a stiff hand to get a natural Blackjack.
Tolerance
Tolerance is the most important factor in blackjack. Without it, bad games become unplayable, and games with good tolerance become excellent. A game’s SCORE, or standard deviation of the expectation, can be calculated by dividing the number of rounds by the number of hours. In a tolerant casino, a game with a SCORE of 30 would be the equivalent of a game with a SCORE of 90.
Strategy
One way to improve your EV in blackjack is to learn to be aggressive. This approach has been around for over a decade and has been used by many players and blackjack teams. However, it has received little publicity until recently. A few books have been published that outline this strategy, including Blackjack Insiders and 20th Century Card Counter.
To get ahead in blackjack, you have to use the right strategy. Blackjack is a game of small edges, so even the most experienced player won’t always win. Nevertheless, the right strategy will put you ahead of the curve and help you win more often than not. Using basic statistical analysis, you can come up with an optimal strategy for each hand. There are several simulation tools available online, including one on GitHub. You can even contribute to the development of these tools.
As a blackjack player, you should strive to maximize your expected value every day. Your EV will change depending on more than one factor, including the type of blackjack you’re playing. In some variants, the EV can actually be negative.